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The traditional tool of the forecasting analyst-a spreadsheet-is flexible and effective but has some serious limitations:

Spreadsheet forecasts can offer only 2 dimensions, a product category over a timescale. To simulate additional dimensions analysts add spreadsheets to the original. Unfortunately this is largely ineffective, the result only creates additional 2-dimensional views. For example:
  • Adding regional (8 regions) forecasts to a single worldwide product revenue forecast requires a new spreadsheet for each region (9 spreadsheets total).
  • Adding size of business (5 levels) to these regions requires 45 total spreadsheets.
  • To add installed base, units, and average selling price requires 135 worksheets.
  • There are research companies that do this. It is extremely complicated, time-consuming, and very dependent on the skill of the analyst (hence varying in quality and error-prone).
  • Because better tools are not readily available research companies are forced to deliver summary data, or put a very high price on custom research to deliver the level of detail that their customers require.
  • Guernsey Research solves this problem.
Spreadsheets are inherently unidirectional. Either all modifications are made at the detail level and roll-up to the summary, or all modifications are made at the summary level and distributed via allocations-percentage splits-to the detail level.
  • As the number of dimensions increases the forecast model soon becomes complex and inflexible.
  • Analysts would like the flexibility to enter data both at the summary and the detail level. Top-down as well as bottom-up.
  • Guernsey Research solves this problem.
Often an analyst will have knowledge about a market that is impossible to convey in a 2D format. Client interaction with analysts is good, but it is better to leverage their knowledge in the information they publish
   
Forecasting Tools-The Problem
 
Forecasting Tools
 
GR-Forecaster Architecture
 
Forecasting Services
 


Guernsey Research

Phone:
+1 650 948-5303
Email Address:
info@guernseyresearch.com

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